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Market Watch

Valuta Tariffe

EURUSD 1.17618 1.17618 1.17711 1.17587
USDJPY 109.802 109.802 109.822 109.667
GBPUSD 1.37882 1.37887 1.38036 1.37763
USDCHF 0.92737 0.92739 0.92794 0.92695

aggiornato 2021-09-17 01:10:01 UTC

Notizie di mercato

The Tell: Here’s why the U.S. dollar could end up going almost nowhere through the end of 2022

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 21:17:00 GMT

Marvin Recinos/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesThe U.S. dollar may struggle to rise past its current levels through the end of 2022, given the likelihood of an almost two-year gap between when the Federal Reserve may start tapering its bond purchases and its first interest rate increase. That’s the view of analysts at TD Securities, who see the U.S. Dollar Index DXY consolidating through the end of 2022 to 89.0, versus 92.9 on Thursday. They see the U.S. central bank looking past the recent inflation shock and erring on the side of continuing to support economic growth, which would limit how much the greenback can rally. TD’s forecast for the dollar index is a bit below the consensus estimate of 91.80.The almost $7 trillion-a-day global currency market, which operates around the clock, is currently grappling with the conflict between slowing worldwide economic growth and a greater intention by central banks to withdraw monetary stimulus, albeit at varying speeds, as the recovery from the pandemic proceeds. The dollar is caught in that tug-of-war between those competing narratives, trading within relatively narrow ranges since June, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. Read: Global currency market seen as the premiere way to trade central banks’ pandemic-era policy divergence “Monetary policy is going to remain fairly static at the Fed, with the central bank sidelined from a hiking perspective into 2022,” Mazen Issa, a senior currency strategist at TD Securities in New York, said via phone Thursday. “The important feature to note about tapering is that it kicks off the debate about liftoff. That will really animate the risks around the dollar going forward.” Meanwhile, policy makers worldwide are generally moving at “a glacial pace” with an intent to ultimately unwind the stimulus provided during the pandemic, he said. “But if everyone is moving in the same direction in incremental steps, that should mitigate significant directional impact on the dollar. “The greenback began this year by defying widespread bets that it would drop in 2021 on a broad vaccination-led global recovery and stimulus-fueled expansion of the U.S. deficit. In a turnabout of thinking by analysts and traders, the U.S.’s massive fiscal and monetary stimulus relative to the rest of the world, and the notion of “American exceptionalism”, were instead seen as likely to burnish the dollar’s appeal. Ordinarily, the dollar trends higher when U.S. interest rates go up or policy makers hint that they will. In June, for example, the greenback got a lift after an unexpected shift in the Fed’s outlook that suggested policy makers were taking the prospects of higher inflation more seriously than many had thought. But since then, for the past three months, the U.S. currency has traded in a confined range. One big reason is the emergence of the stagflation theme in markets, and another is that much of what happens to the dollar depends heavily on what else is going on in the rest of the world. For now, Europe “has started to gain an edge versus North America” when it comes to the change in growth expectations, and the dollar has moved to the bottom of the Group-of-10 currencies along with the Canadian loonie, CADUSD according to a note earlier this week by Issa and TD Securities strategists Mark McCormick and Ray Ng.They recommended buying the euro on dips and waiting for some form of “reflation-lite” trend to return this fall before buying the loonie. Any shift toward a “reflation-lite” scenario would also offer dip-buying opportunities in the U.S. dollar-yen pair USDJPY, they said.Much of the price action across currencies in the months to come will be driven not just by the economic backdrop, but by the lack of uniform responses to higher inflation from global central banks. In a separate note on Wednesday, James Rossiter, TD’s head of global macro strategy, said he sees room for error on multiple fronts by central banks.Among some of the risks, he says, are that: central banks like those of Australia, Canada and England tighten monetary policy despite slowing growth; or that the Fed, European Central Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank delay tightening despite high inflation.“Going forward, there’s going to be more variation in monetary policy,” TD’s Issa said. “So far, we’ve seen clusters of central banks moving around the same time. But into 2022, we’re going to start seeing how tolerant central banks are on the inflation front, and that could lead to more variation in policy.”

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Dow, S&P 500 close lower as Nasdaq Composite ekes out back-to-back gains in volatile Thursday action

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 20:06:10 GMT

U.S. equity markets on Thursday finished well off session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite booking consecutive gains but the S&P 500 and the Dow notching slight losses, as investors parsed economic reports ahead of a key gathering of policy makers next week. The turbulence in the session, similar to what the market has exhibited over the past week, came even as August retail sales produced an unexpected rise and a measure of activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district that was stronger than expected. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed 0.1% higher at 15,182, on a preliminary basis, enough for its second straight gain; the S&P 500 index finished down 0.2% at around 4,474; while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to about 34,751. Data showed August retail sales rose 0.7%, defying forecasts for a 0.7% fall. Excluding autos, sales jumped 1.8%, compared with expectations for a rise of 0.2%. Separately, the Philadelphia Fed's activity index jumped to 30.7 in September from 19.4 a month earlier. At the same time, data showed first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected in the week ending Sept. 11, though continuing claims fell. In corporate news, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. announced in August it would accept bitcoin for online ticket and concession purchases before the end of the year. Thursday's trade was informed by a big pullback in China stocks, with the Shanghai Composite ending down 1.3%. Investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that kicks off on Sept. 21.

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U.S. oil futures settle unchanged; Brent notches another finish at highest in 7 weeks

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 19:00:28 GMT

Oil futures shook off Thursday’s early losses, leading U.S. prices to settle unchanged for the session, a day after a weekly drop in U.S. crude supplies lifted prices to their highest since late July. Global benchmark Brent prices, meanwhile, edged higher to notch another finish at their highest in about seven weeks. West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery ended flat at $72.61 a barrel. November Brent crude settled at $75.67 a barrel, up 21 cents, or 0.3%.

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Gold futures down 2% to settle at lowest in 5 weeks

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 17:42:29 GMT

Gold futures declined by 2% on Thursday to mark the lowest settlement in five weeks. A climb in August U.S. retail sales provided a boost to both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, easing investor interest in the precious metal. December gold fell $38.10, or 2%, to settle at $1,756.70 an ounce. That was the biggest one-day loss for a most-active contract since Aug. 6 and lowest settlement since Aug. 12, FactSet data show.

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American Express stock rises to pace the Dow's gainers after BofA backs away from bearish stance

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 17:42:18 GMT

Shares of American Express Co. rose 0.8% in afternoon trading Thursday, enough to pace the Dow Jones Industrial Average gainers, after BofA Securities analyst Mihir Bhatia backed away from from his bearish view on the charge card and travel-related services company, citing a now "balanced" risk-reward profile. The stock has lost 4.6% since the end of July, while the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF has gained 3.4% and the S&P 500 has tacked on 1.4%. Bhatia attributed the stock's recent underperformance to fears that the recent spike in COVID-19 cases would slow the economic recovery and hurt AmEx's billings. "However, at a conference appearance this week, [AmEX] noted that [quarter-to-date] total billings are up 3% vs. 2019 levels (an acceleration from -2% in 2Q)," Bhatia wrote in a research note. "This was better than feared." He added that while a slower recovery and higher corporate taxes are remain near-term risks, the company is likely to also benefit from increased travel spending, particularly by large businesses, in 2022.

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